November 2023 Market Statistics

Well, November is a wrap, and the real estate scene looks a lot like last year. Like in 2022, higher interest rates nudged prices down a bit from the spring, making the market a mix of buyer-friendly and balanced conditions, depending on the metrics you check. Also, the recent drop in bond yields could spark buyer interest, similar to what happened a year ago.

Although sales inched up to 394 compared to last November, the overall market is moving at a slow pace. In the last 40 years, the average November saw 531 sales, and the current figure resembles the quieter market from a decade ago (366 sales in Nov 2012 and 381 a year later). Back then, there were over 4000 properties for sale, whereas now there are 2644. While today’s market is slower than in recent years, it’s not the slowest it’s ever been.

Condo sales dipped a bit in October, while detached and townhouses showed some improvement. New listings are doing better than in the past decade but are still in line with normal patterns and fewer than twelve years ago.

More short-term rental listings flooded in with 28 new ones in November, up from 10 last year, but most aren’t selling. Out of 56 active listings, only 4 short-term rentals sold in November, highlighting a big gap between what sellers want and what buyers are willing to pay. Unlike regular condos, which have a balanced market with about 6 months of inventory, short-term rentals are stuck with 14 months of inventory, indicating a slow market. Interestingly, the latest sale of a short-term rental likely went for around 20% less than its pre-regulation value.

Inventory usually drops this time of year, but the delay in the decline is clear from the rising seasonally adjusted figures in November. Since inventory growth stalled around this time last year, it’s important to closely check December and January data for any similar patterns. Seasonally adjusted data can be tricky, so a thorough examination is key when trends shift.

Market balance held steady in November compared to the previous month. But, when diving into seasonal adjustments and trend analysis, it gets a bit tricky. While the trend suggests a slight drop in November, the raw seasonally adjusted values actually nudged up a bit for the sales-to-new-list ratio and months of inventory. It’s a small shift, but considering it happened this time last year before the market picked up in spring, it’s something worth keeping an eye on.

Market conditions haven’t shifted since last month. While the sales-to-new-list ratio suggests a buyer’s market, the months of inventory are holding at a balanced level. This sets the stage for potential price drops, given the current trend. Yet, the relatively low inventory, compared to a decade ago, adds a precarious edge to the balance. It wouldn’t take many more sales to tip it toward price stability or increases, like we saw in the spring. However, the 25% increase in inventory compared to a year ago is making these balanced conditions more entrenched.

Detached property sales to assessed value ratios dipped last month, possibly influenced by changes in the sales mix. However, a 7% median drop in one month suggests more than just that. Sellers seem to be adjusting prices, given the limited and less motivated buyer pool. It’s a typical trend in the fall, where negotiating prices tends to be more favorable than during peak selling seasons.

I don’t usually give specific advice, but I think now and the next few months could be a good time to buy a house if you can manage it. Not expecting prices to skyrocket soon, but I also don’t see detached property conditions getting a lot better in the usual buying timeframe. Yeah, affordability is still not great, and prices might not change much in the next three years. Plus, we might be heading into a recession, not the best for housing, but lower rates and slowly increasing incomes could balance things out for affordability.

Reach out to me for any questions about this or for an honest opinion on buying or selling in this market!